CANADA is a country of balancing acts. It treasures its reputation as an upstanding global citizen while pumping heavy oil from its tar sands. Its relatively weak federal government must strike compromises among provinces with varying ideologies, cultures and languages. Both of those tasks may have become harder after the fall of the Liberal Party’s government in British Columbia (BC) on June 29th.
Among the signature policies of Justin Trudeau, the Liberal prime minister, is an effort to meet Canada’s commitments under the Paris accord by requiring its provinces to impose a price on carbon. In exchange for the assent of provincial premiers, he approved three big energy projects, including a pipeline that would ship oil from Alberta to BC’s Pacific coast. By tripling exports to overseas markets, this would reduce Canada’s economic dependence on the United States.
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BC pioneered the trade-off Mr Trudeau would later trumpet. Since 2001 it has been ruled by the provincial Liberal Party—which sits to the right of its federal namesake, because the Conservatives, Canada’s national centre-right party, are all but defunct in BC, leaving the Liberals as the only home for their voters. In 2008 BC became the first jurisdiction on the continent to introduce a carbon tax, offsetting the revenue by cutting levies on personal and corporate income. The BC Liberals also approved the oil pipeline.
On May 9th the Liberals, led by Christy Clark, won their fifth straight election, securing 43 of the 87 seats in the provincial Parliament. However, they lost four seats and fell short of a majority. Although rural voters remained loyal to the Liberals, those in Vancouver, home to roughly half of BC’s population, flocked to the left-wing New Democrats (NDP) and Greens. Together, the two leftist parties could eke out the narrowest of majorities, 44 seats to 43. Both said they would oppose the pipeline.
Ms Clark, the premier since 2011, did her best to hang on to power. She promised to adopt many of the NDP’s proposals, including raising spending on the poor, adding beds to nursing homes and ending tolls on bridges. Nonetheless, the opposition was desperate to dethrone her. She lost a confidence vote on June 29th.
The Liberals’ defeat is not a death knell for the pipeline. The first piece of legislation for the incoming coalition is a ban on donations to provincial political parties by companies and unions, and John Horgan, the new premier, says he will focus on increasing funding to combat the abuse of fentanyl, a dangerous opioid. Moreover, the pipeline’s fate depends mainly on support from the federal government. Mr Trudeau has shown no sign of wavering.
However, the project was already behind schedule because of regulatory delays. The new government could easily extend them, by filing new legal challenges to bolster existing injunctions. If BC manages to forestall the pipeline for long enough, support from the right for Mr Trudeau’s grand bargain could wither in a hurry.
